February 13 2014
American stocks bounced last week like a skier pounding moguls on an Olympic freestyle course. Some found it difficult to understand why stocks had their best week since December of 2013. Barron’s said:
“We just can’t figure out why the markets were strong. It’s not like the news this week was terribly good. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey fell to 51.3, well below forecasts for 56.5. The U.S. added just 117,000 jobs, well below forecasts for 170,000. You would think investors would be worried that the economy was running out of steam.”
Experts cited in the article suggested banks have been easing lending standards. Historically, that has been a positive for the economy and may offer insight to gross domestic product growth, industrial production, employment, and profit margins months from now. Others believe the downturn was due to hedge funds derisking their portfolios, and some credit earnings with stocks’ positive movement as almost 66 percent of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index that have reported this quarter have exceeded earnings expectations forecast by analysts.
Bonds aren’t doing what they were expected to do either. When the Federal Reserve sounded the bell in January – marking the beginning of the end for its third and biggest round of bond buying (called quantitative easing or QE) – it seemed logical bond prices would fall and interest rates rise. After all, basic economic theory suggests less demand should drive prices lower. Perversely, despite the Fed reducing its purchases, Treasury bonds have gained value and yields have fallen. The same thing happened when the Fed ended the first two rounds of quantitative easing and may reflect fear that economies will lose momentum without the Fed’s strong monetary support.
Let’s hope markets continue to do as well as America’s snowboarders. Last week, Americans took Olympic gold (in the men’s and women’s events) on a slope-style course many competitors had trouble navigating and believed might be too risky.
- Data as of 1/17/141- WeekY-T-D1-Year3-Year5-Year10-Year
- Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)0.8%-0.02819.1%0.10915.6%4.7%
- 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)2.7N/A2.03.63.04.1
- Gold (per ounce) 0.74.8-24.5-126.96.36.199
- DJ-UBS Commodity Index1.92.2-9-7.32.6-0.7
- DJ Equity All REIT TR Index0.7 4.3 3.19.621.08.4