Knowledge Center

Direct. Calculated. Personalized

February 13 2018

Back to reality…

After months of eerie calm, stock market volatility has returned. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – a measure of how turbulent investors expect stock markets to be during the next 30 days – appeared to fall asleep in November 2016. For more than a year, a level of serenity that is rarely associated with stock markets prevailed and U.S. share prices moved steadily higher.

It appears that time is behind us.
Barron’s wrote:

With February’s swift stock market correction, volatility has arrived and will probably stay awhile. The downturn last week ended a streak of 404 trading days without a 5 percent drop in stock prices from the previous high – the longest such streak in market history.

The last correction came in February 2016, when stocks dropped 15 percent. Investors then fretted that Chinese economic growth might be slowing, which turned out to be a false alarm. Long term, the latest nose dive might yet become just a bull speed bump, but there’s already been plenty of pain.”

So, is this a speed bump or is it the beginning of a bear market? A bear market, generally, is a decline of 20 percent or more, and it is normally accompanied by a recession, which is a significant decline in economic activity.

In general, financial firms and publications do not anticipate a recession in 2018, but forecasting recessions can be challenging.

No matter what happens, the key is keeping your head. At times like these, emotion grabs investors by the throat, and it can be difficult to recall markets and economies tend to move in cycles. Historically, bull markets lead to bear markets, which lead to bull markets. Likewise, economic expansions are followed by contractions (recessions), which are followed by expansions.

U.S. stock markets rallied on Friday, but the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Index, and NASDAQ all finished the week more than 5 percent lower.

Sources:
http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-faqs#1
https://www.barrons.com/articles/seat-belts-fastened-volatility-ahead-1518237935
http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data (Click on “VIX data for 2004 to present (Updated Daily)”)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asp

  • Data as of 2/9/20181-WeekY-T-D1-Year3-Year5-Year10-Year
  • Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)-0.052-0.020.1350.0860.1150.069
  • Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.-6.3-2.7164.43.70.9
  • 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)2.8NA2.4223.6
  • Gold (per ounce)-1.31.46.32-4.53.7
  • Bloomberg Commodity Index-3.9-2.9-3.3-6.1-9.4-8
  • DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index-4.2-9.6-2.91.96.77.3

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

Free Consultation

Enter your email address to receive an email from us to schedule your consultation.

*Don’t worry, you will not be spammed.

info logo

Bart A Zandbergen, CFP® is a Registered Investment Advisor with Optivest, Inc and a Registered Representative with Gramercy Securities, Inc. Investment advisory services are offered by Optivest, Inc. under SEC Registration and securities are offered through Gramercy Securities, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC, 3949 Old Post Road, Charlestown, RI, 02813, 800-333-7450.

BrokerCheck

Investment advisory services are offered by Optivest, Inc. and securities are offered through Gramercy Securities, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Securities are not FDIC-Insured, are not bank-guaranteed and may lose value. This website is provided solely for Optivest, Inc. clients and does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice. Be sure to consult with your own tax and legal advisors before taking any action that would have tax consequences. All references to Optivest on this website refer to Optivest, Inc. (a California Incorporated company) and all references to Optivest Properties refer to Optivest Properties, LLC. Optivest, Inc. does not represent that the securities, products, or services discussed in this website are suitable or appropriate for all investors. Information herein is taken from sources deemed reliable and neither Optivest, Inc. nor Gramercy Securities, Inc. is responsible for any errors that might occur. Optivest, Inc. may only transact business in those states and international jurisdictions where we are registered/filed notice or otherwise excluded or exempted from registration requirements. The information on this website is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any entity or person in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation, or which would subject Optivest, Inc. or Gramercy Securities to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. The opinions expressed by vendors or third parties are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of Optivest, Gramercy or their affiliates. All links to other Internet websites (“hyperlinks”) are included as a convenience for our visitors and Optivest, Inc. assumes no liability for the content or the presentation of such linked sites. No part of this website may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other print or electronic publication without the express consent of Optivest, Inc. The material has been prepared and is distributed solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No representation or warranty is provided for any software that may be downloaded from this website. Copyright © 2016 Optivest, Inc.

Securities offered through Gramercy Securities, Inc., 3949 Old Post Road, Charlestown, RI 02813, 1-800-333-7450

Market Watch - Last Closing Prices


Market Quotes are powered by Investing.com

Get a Free Second Opinion