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March 10 2016

When Mark Twain’s death was reported in the United States, he was alive and well in London. He responded to news accounts with a note saying, “The report of my death was an exaggeration.”

Last week’s jobs data suggest the same is true of reports that a recession is imminent in the United States. Barron’s explained:

“Thank goodness the mid-February fears of recession that brought markets to their knees – and the 10-year Treasury yield to a low of 1.53 percent – were overblown. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report was the latest confirmation. It showed that 242,000 jobs were created last month, far more than expected and up from the previous month’s reading, which was itself revised higher.”

The employment data weren’t all positive, though. Average hourly earnings declined when it was expected to increase and the number of hours worked was lower, on average, than it has been for two years.

Regardless, The Wall Street Journal said employment, consumer, and business spending reports helped calm investors’ fear the U.S. economy was losing momentum. Some investors sold bonds, which helped push the yield on 10-year Treasury notes higher.

Investors also were encouraged by last week’s oil price rally, according to CNBC. A better demand outlook, coupled with cuts in supply, boosted oil prices by 9.5 percent in one week.

U.S. stock market performance reflected investors’ renewed optimism. USA Today said, “Stocks have rebounded from their worst start to a year ever, with the benchmark S&P 500 trimming its year-to-date loss to 2.15 percent after being down by more than 10 percent on February 11.” At the end of last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was about 6 percent below its record high.

Sources:
http://www.thisdayinquotes.com/2010/06/reports-of-my-death-are-greatly.html
http://www.barrons.com/articles/3-strategies-for-coping-with-volatile-rates-1457157564?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns
http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2016/03/04/payroll-growth-jumps-in-february-unemployment-flat-as-wages-slip

  • Data as of 3/4/161-WeekY-T-D1-Year3-Year5-Year10-Year
  • Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)0.027-0.022-0.0510.0950.0870.046
  • Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.5-3.6-13.2-2.1-2.5-0.3
  • 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)1.9NA2.11.93.54.7
  • Gold (per ounce)4.220.36.5-6.7-2.28.5
  • Bloomberg Commodity Index3.9-0.2-23.2-16.8-14.3-7
  • DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index3.900.68.410.76.2

*Indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.
*Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
*S&P 500, Gold, Dow Jones Global ex-Us, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend).
*The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends.
*All investments involve risk – coins and bullion are no exception. The value of the bullion and coins is affected by many economic circumstances, including the current market price of bullion, the perceived scarcity of the coins and other factors. Therefore, because both bullion and coins can go down as well as up in value, investing in them may not be suitable for everyone. Since all investments, including bullion and coins, can decline in value, you should understand them well, and have adequate cash reserves and disposable income before considering a bullion or coin investment.

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Bart A Zandbergen, CFP® is a Registered Investment Advisor with Optivest, Inc and a Registered Representative with Gramercy Securities, Inc. Investment advisory services are offered by Optivest, Inc. under SEC Registration and securities are offered through Gramercy Securities, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC, 3949 Old Post Road, Charlestown, RI, 02813, 800-333-7450.

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