Knowledge Center

Direct. Calculated. Personalized

November 22 2017

Are investors more like tigers or African wild dogs?

It appears investors – retail and institutional – have become rather like predators. They patiently stalk shares, waiting for a dip, and then they strike – buying stocks when prices fall.

Consider last week. Barron’s described it like this: “The Dow traded down nearly 80 points on Monday, 170 points on Tuesday, and 170 points on Wednesday, but each time the blue-chip benchmark finished off its lows. That was followed by the Dow’s 187-point rally on Thursday, as everyone bought the dips.”

Investors’ remarkable behavior led the publication to speculate, “What if higher volatility, instead of scaring investors away from the stock market, brings them in? In that case, this bull market could still have a long way to go.”

Buying low and selling high is a foundational principle of investing. However, it remains to be seen how successful buying dips will prove to be in a market that some believe is too highly valued.

One measure of valuation is the 12-month trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which tracks a company’s current share price against its earnings during the previous 12 months. Last week, FactSet reported the trailing P/E ratio for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was 22. The five-year average is 18.2, and the 10-year average is 16.9. Some prefer to look at forward P/E ratios, which compare share price to expected future earnings. The forward P/E ratio for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was 18, while the five-year average is 15.7, and the 10-year average is 14.1.

Only time will tell whether investors’ dip buying will more closely resemble the hunts of tigers or those of African wild dogs. When hunting prey, tigers are successful 5 to 10 percent of the time. African wild dogs take down prey 85 percent of the time, according to BBC’s Discover Wildlife.

As always, much will depend on the investments selected.

  • Data as of 11/17/20171-WeekY-T-D1-Year3-Year5-Year10-Year
  • Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)-0.0010.1520.1790.0810.1320.061
  • Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.-0.420.824.53.95.6-0.4
  • 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)2.4NA2.32.31.64.1
  • Gold (per ounce)010.84.72.8-5.85.1
  • Bloomberg Commodity Index-0.6-0.94.9-9.6-9.5-7
  • DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index-0.69.316.28.3117.5

*Indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.
*Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association
*S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

Free Consultation

Enter your email address to receive an email from us to schedule your consultation.

*Don’t worry, you will not be spammed.

info logo

Bart A Zandbergen, CFP® is a Registered Investment Advisor with Optivest, Inc and a Registered Representative with Gramercy Securities, Inc. Investment advisory services are offered by Optivest, Inc. under SEC Registration and securities are offered through Gramercy Securities, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC, 3949 Old Post Road, Charlestown, RI, 02813, 800-333-7450.

BrokerCheck

Investment advisory services are offered by Optivest, Inc. and securities are offered through Gramercy Securities, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Securities are not FDIC-Insured, are not bank-guaranteed and may lose value. This website is provided solely for Optivest, Inc. clients and does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice. Be sure to consult with your own tax and legal advisors before taking any action that would have tax consequences. All references to Optivest on this website refer to Optivest, Inc. (a California Incorporated company) and all references to Optivest Properties refer to Optivest Properties, LLC. Optivest, Inc. does not represent that the securities, products, or services discussed in this website are suitable or appropriate for all investors. Information herein is taken from sources deemed reliable and neither Optivest, Inc. nor Gramercy Securities, Inc. is responsible for any errors that might occur. Optivest, Inc. may only transact business in those states and international jurisdictions where we are registered/filed notice or otherwise excluded or exempted from registration requirements. The information on this website is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any entity or person in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation, or which would subject Optivest, Inc. or Gramercy Securities to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. The opinions expressed by vendors or third parties are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of Optivest, Gramercy or their affiliates. All links to other Internet websites (“hyperlinks”) are included as a convenience for our visitors and Optivest, Inc. assumes no liability for the content or the presentation of such linked sites. No part of this website may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other print or electronic publication without the express consent of Optivest, Inc. The material has been prepared and is distributed solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No representation or warranty is provided for any software that may be downloaded from this website. Copyright © 2016 Optivest, Inc.

Securities offered through Gramercy Securities, Inc., 3949 Old Post Road, Charlestown, RI 02813, 1-800-333-7450

Market Watch - Last Closing Prices


Market Quotes are powered by Investing.com

Get a Free Second Opinion